My best bets of the Week
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5). The last time these two teams played, the Rams eked out a 2-point win at home which still stands as the difference between these two squads in the standings. I am expecting another close game, but this time it will be Seattle that gets the win. Matt Stafford is playing at an elite level, but the potential loss of Davante Adams will be just enough (along with home field advantage and a better kicker) to swing the advantage Seattle's way. This likely isn't the last time these two teams play each other this year. I'm taking the home team getting points all day here.
Seahawks 23 - Rams 21
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (+6.5). The Commanders are playing out the string with Marcus Mariota at QB. That was enough to beat the Giants last week, but this team isn't the Giants. I don't foresee the Eagles missing multiple field goal and dropping touchdowns or doing whatever else it is each week that the Giants do to manage to lose games. Philly is going to handle their business here and win this one by more than a touchdown. Lock that in.
Eagles 30 - Commanders 17
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (+10). Is there a team more fun to watch than the Bills? Specifically, Josh Allen? The Patriots were well on their way to beating Buffalo in Foxboro last week to take back the mantle of King of the East, but Allen and his teammates had other plans. The Bills now sit as the 6 seed in the AFC and are now just a game behind New England for the AFC east title. They aren't going to mess around with Cleveland this week. The Cleveland defense has been run on for the last two weeks in cold weather games and that's exactly what's going to happen against this weekend. Shadeur Sanders isn't the answer, and I don't see this team managing to keep up once they fall behind by two scores.
Bills 31 - Browns 13
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5). What do we think Patrick Mahomes is worth when it comes to the points spread in this game? If he was playing, even with his team eliminated, the Chiefs would easily be favored by more than a touchdown. But unfortunately, he's not playing and the team has been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in 8 seasons. This won't just be the first time that Kansas City hasn't made the playoffs in 8 years with Patrick Mahomes leading the offense, it will also be the first time they didn't make it as far as the conference championship game. It's just insane how amazing this run has been. Nobody outside of Chiefs kingdom will be shedding any tears for Andy Reid and his boys, certainly not any of the Titan faithful in the crowd in Nashville this Sunday. Gardner Minshew isn't nearly as good as Patrick Mahomes, but he's certainly every bit as good as Cam Ward is right now. The fact that he is under center may actually help the Chiefs in this particular game from a betting standpoint as a Mahomes led team may have struggled to cover a larger number. I'll take Minshew to have a solid game this week and for the Chiefs to take this game down as they battle to finish the season on a positive note with a couple of wins.
Chiefs 27 - Titans 19
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5). The Cowboys lost at home last week to the Vikings in a must win game. That's it. That's all I need to know. There's no way this team in that situation should have lost that game, yet the Cowboys just had to Cowboy things up. They allowed J.J. McCarthy to set a new career high for passing yards while leading the team to the most points that they've scored with him under center. Justin Herbert is better than J.J. McCarthy and the Chargers need this game to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC as they still have an outside shot at catching Denver for the top spot in the West. As all Cowboy games have been, I expect a high scoring affair with the Bolts coming away with the win, even though the game is being played at Jerry World.
Chargers 38 - Cowboys 31
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina Panthers (+3). The showdown of the week? What a roller coaster it has been this year for both of these franchises. It seems like neither team actually wants to win this division, so don't be shocked if they set a new NFL record by actually tying each other twice in the next three weeks. That's right, they play twice over their final three games to determine who will represent the NFC South in the playoffs. The Bucs have a slight edge in this "playoff race" as their other game is against the Dolphins, while Carolina will host the Seahawks in week 16. I expect these two teams to split these two games, and since it makes sense to pick the home team in each matchup, I'm going with the road Bucs in this game. The return of Mike Evans was the shot in the arm Tampa and Baker Mayfield needed last week, even though it didn't result in a win over Atlanta. After losing 5 of their last 6 games, it's now or never for the Bucs who can clinch this division with two straight wins and a likely Panther loss against Seattle.
Bucs 31 - Panthers 27
Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans (-14). The Texans might be working on something big this season. They are sort of flying under the radar as teams like New England, Denver and their division leading Jaguars have gotten most of the headlines lately. To advance deep into the playoffs you need at least one elite unit on either side of the ball, and this Texan defense qualifies. Houston has now won 6 straight games, and they showed us last week that they aren't going to let down against an inferior opponent. The Raiders limp into town as an ever more inferior challenge than what Arizona posed last week, so I am expecting a similar result. The number looks like a lot, but I don't think Houston has to even score 20 points to cover it. If you're wondering, they will score more than 20 points against this Raider team that just got rolled by the Eagles.
Texans 27 - Raiders 9
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions (-7). Both teams are 8-6, but only one of them is in the playoffs as of right now. Yet, it's the division leading Steelers that are a full touchdown underdog to a Lions team that currently sits in 3rd place in the NFC North and on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture. Pittsburgh is going likely going to win that division, but they aren't a particularly good team right now. Aaron Rodgers is good enough to lead their offense in frigid temperatures over a team like Miami, but on the road indoors it will be a different story. Dan Campbell is still a meathead, and he's not going to lead this team anywhere when all is said and done, but he will get them whipped up to play hard and beat up and Rodgers this weekend. Before you get defensive about Campbell, go back and watch last week's game against the Rams. When your head coach doesn't know what plays are challengeable and which aren't, and he loses your team a time out in a must win game against a tough team on the road, he's not going to be able to handle a long playoff run. That's going to be how this Lions team will be remembered when all is said and done. They're fun to watch and can bully weaker teams, but they aren't ever going to win it all with Campbell as both head coach and play caller. They will win this game though.
Lions 34 - Steelers 20
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (+6). The Philip Rivers "come back experience" was fun, wasn't it? The Colts did a great job in Seattle to keep that game close, but in the end, they just weren't able to move the ball consistently with Old Man Rivers under center. While they did score the only touchdown of the contest, Seattle was able to pile up enough points thanks to Jason Meyers' leg to come away with the victory. Maybe the rest of the league's coaches were watching and learned that those pesky 3-point shots actually add up, and you can win games kicking field goals. While last week was interesting, it isn't going to work well enough to actually beat talented teams. The 49ers are a talented team that has won 4 straight games and will make it 5 this Monday night in Indy. Take the 49ers in a low scoring game.
49ers 20 - Colts 12