Week 7 Picks

 The rumors of the Chiefs demise were greatly exaggerated, as they were able to beat down the Detroit Lions at home this past week to get their record even at 3-3.  The schedule makers gave them a bit of a breather for this weekend as they welcome the 2-4 Raiders into Arrowhead Stadium with the Chiefs sitting as heavy 12.5-point favorites.  When we consider that Patrick Mahomes will finally have his full complement of weapons at his disposal with the return of Rashee Rice, we have to wonder if that spread is even large enough.  Maxx Crosby will do what he can to disrupt Mahomes, but it isn't something Patrick hasn't dealt with before.  Geno Smith had a minor bounce back game last week in a Raiders win, but it was against the hapless Titans, who responded by firing their head coach.  Smith wasn't anywhere near perfect as he managed just 174 yards and 1 TD while still throwing an interception.  That makes 10 total picks thrown by the veteran on the season, leaving many to wonder if Pete Carroll will make the move to Kenny Pickett at some point.  This game may push them to that tipping point and I expect it to get ugly early and stay that way for Vegas.

Chiefs 37 - Raiders - 13

The Steelers travel to the Queen City for the Thursday Night kickoff game to take on the reeling Bengals.  The Bengals dropped their 4th straight game of the season last week against the Packers.  Making the change from Jake Browning to Joe Flacco didn't seem to do much to change how the offense operates as they still can't run the ball.  Flacco was able to feed his top two targets in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, which may save a few fantasy seasons out there, but the Bengals themselves don't appear to be so lucky.  Look for the Steelers to run the ball on the Cincy defense much like Green Bay did last week and as long as they can avoid any silly mistakes, this game should be an easy win on the road.  Aaron Rodgers has taken care of the ball for the most part with just 3 interceptions thus far on the season.  He shouldn't have to do too much in this game as the Steeler defense will be all over Flacco and their secondary led by Darius Slay, Joey Porter and Jalen Ramsey should be able to keep a top on the talented Bengals receiving corps.  Take the Steelers to cover.  Under 43.5 also seems likely, but less of a lock.

Steelers 23 - Bengals 13

The Jets sit as the lone winless team in the league after participating in a major snoozefest in England this past Sunday.  Hopefully the home crowd is so used to seeing low scoring games with lots of kicking, they just thought they were watching a high scoring soccer match.  Justin Fields managed a whopping 45 yards passing for the game as Gang Green's offense looked absolutely infected in the 13-11 loss.  The bright spot would have to be the play of their defense, which held Bo Nix to just 178 yards passing and the Broncos run game to less than 100 yards.  The Panthers pulled out a close win at home against the Cowboys to even their record at 3-3.  Their three wins have come at home while they've dropped all three of their road games so far in 2025.  Look for that trend to continue and or the Jets to finally get into the win column.  It may not make a ton of sense, but I expect the Jets to actually put it all together and win this one easily.  The Panthers have been riding high on the recent explosion of Rico Dowdle leading their backfield, but those huge games have come against two of the worst defenses in the league in Miami and Dallas.  Look for Breece Hall and Justin Fields to combine for over 150 yards and two scores on the ground and for the Jet defense to possibly score a TD of their own.

Jets 30 - Panthers 13

The Saints are one of 5 teams playing his Sunday with 1 or less wins on the season.  This Sunday they travel to the Windy City to take on Caleb Williams and a Bears squad that pulled out a close one on Monday night over Washington thanks to a last second field goal by newly signed kicker, Jake Moody.  It was a coming out party of sorts for D'Andre Swift as he led the Bears in both rushing and receiving with 175 combined yards and a score.  Williams did his part leading the offense and protecting the ball as he threw for 252 yards with a score and more importantly zero interceptions.  The Saints dropped a fairly close one at home against New England in a game they were actually leading in the second half 16-14.  The Pats rallied to put up 10 points to take the lead for good as the Saints could only manage a late Blake Grupe field goal before losing by a final of 25-19.  The biggest issue that has plagued New Orleans has been finding the end zone each week.  They have only scored more than 1 TD in one game this season and have repeatedly had to settle for field goals.  That's great for anybody who owns Blake Grupe in fantasy, but it's not a recipe for success, especially playing in Chicago where the kicking conditions can be less than ideal.  The Bears should pick up where they left off on Monday night and put up a big number on this Saints team that's been allowing about 30 point per game in their 5 losses.  Lay the points, take the home team.

Bears 31 - Saints 16

The Eagles started the season 4-0 and even though it was mostly ugly, many pundits defended them saying "This is just how Philly wins".  After two straight losses, including a prime-time debacle against their division rival Giants, those same pundits are now wondering if all is not so well in the City of Brotherly Love.  Jalen Hurts has always had his critics who have said he's really nothing more than a fullback who can throw the ball a little bit.  While those critics have always seemed way off base, now the grumbling is getting louder after we've seen the Eagles offense struggle for a second straight week, and their passing game has been lacking all season long.  This week Philly travels to Minnesota to take on a Vikings squad that will be returning after their bye.  Expect J.J. McCarthy to get the nod under center and for the Vikings offense to possibly sputter a bit as their second-year signal caller works to get his feet under him.  The Eagles need this win and much like the Chiefs were able to when their backs were against the wall, Philadelphia should be able to come out on top here.  Look for Saquon Barkley to eclipse the century mark for the first time this season and to get back into the endzone once again.

Eagles 31 - Vikings 24